My Prediction for the 2020 Presidential Election

October 3, 2020 3:44pm

Today is October 3rd. We are exactly one month from the presidential election. Who do you predict will win?

All of us could give the lottery numbers after they've been drawn. But what's the fun of that? Similarly, there's no sport in Monday morning quarterbacking the election, so I want to go on the record with my Electoral College prediction now.

Although I don't want it to happen, I think Donald Trump will lose. Bigly. Regardless of what happens in the Electoral College, Joe Biden will certainly receive more of the national popular vote than Trump will. But that popular vote is meaningless, so I don't care.

The Electoral College is what matters. I don't expect Trump to win any states he lost four years ago. But I expect him to lose four states that he won in 2016: Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Maine will go all in for Biden. And I expect Nebraska to split with 4 votes for Trump and 1 for Biden. Consequently, I predict Joe Biden will win the Electoral College vote 295 - 243.

This map shows my predicted breakdown. I hope and pray that I'm wrong.

You can make your own prediction or play out various scenarios with the interactive map at www.270toWin.com